A lot has been written about how the Democrats are doomed this year. If you read Stuart Rothenberg or Chris Cillizza, you might be wondering why we’re even having an election. And for the most part, they’re right. While there are individual cases why the Democrats may hold the Senate (the personal strength of Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu, the poor Republican fields in North Carolina and Alaska, the blue nature of Colorado and Michigan), as a larger picture it looks pretty bleak. The Democrats start out the House cycle with two seats almost guaranteed to go away from them (the open seats of Mike McIntyre in North Carolina and Jim Matheson in Utah are far too conservative for the Democrats to win without these longtime incumbents running), and people like Nick Rahall, Ron Barber, and Scott Peters all make it seem like the Democrats could be out of the running.
But that’s not to say that there aren’t bright spots for the Democrats. I’ve been trying to think of a way to tackle the House (since we’ve spoken at length about the Senate and governor’s races for the midterms), and figured this could be a way. Below I will go through eight seats that I think the Democrats could still pick up this cycle, with the highest-ranking being almost assured.
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| Amanda Renteria |
One of the most Democratic seats currently controlled by a Republican (it’s second only to the number one listed seat on this roster), this is my under-the-radar pick for the seat the Democrats could pick-up. With President Obama getting 55% of the vote (it’s becoming oddly difficult for Republicans to function in a seat that liberal, though a Democrat isn’t DOA when Romney has that percentage, oddly enough), the Democrats royally botched this race in 2012, with their preferred candidate missing the general election by some 600 votes, and the party was saddled with a poor candidate against a sitting member of the state legislature. Amanda Renteria, a former chief of staff to Debbie Stabenow, is a novice when it comes to running for electoral politics, but has lots of connections, and more importantly, a liberal district to run from. If the Democrats can’t take it in 2014, 2016 seems like a very strong bet.
7. Nevada-3
Though the seat went for President Obama in 2012 (by one point), Rep. Joe Heck clobbered St. Rep. John Oceguera (D), who ran an awful campaign. Erin Bilbray, daughter of former Rep. James Bilbray, has tons of connections and is doing better than Oceguera (though her fundraising is still way behind Heck’s), and her work as a member of the DNC could come in handy in terms of getting precious national resources. It’s also worth noting that Heck is a potential challenger to Harry Reid in 2016, and Reid is famous for using his impressive statewide machine to turn out the vote, particularly when it’s in his own interest. That may help Bilbray.
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| Judge Ann Callis |
One of the most disappointing aspects of the 2012 elections was that the Democrats chose David Gill over Matt Goetten (by a mere 163 votes), which led to us having the inferior candidate in a race we surely would have won (Gill lost by a thousand votes despite minimal funding and him being a three-time previous loser). This year we have a far superior candidate in District Circuit Judge Ann Callis. The question is whether or not this is the wrong year (if Tarryl Clark had ran against Michele Bachmann in 2006, 2008, or 2012, she would have won-proof that timing is everything in politics and Tarryl Clark shouldn’t have run in 2010). This is one of the few states where President Obama will likely campaign on behalf of a competitive statewide race (Gov. Pat Quinn is far less popular than the President in his home state and the President can get out the vote here), which may help Callis who will need some of the district’s more liberal pockets to vote in huge numbers to take out Davis.
5. Iowa-3
This is one of three open seats in this list, and the only seat that wouldn’t be remotely competitive if it weren’t for the incumbent (popular Rep. Tom Latham, whose reluctance to run for the Senate still baffles me) retiring. Appel is not a top tier candidate in a traditional sense (she’s coming off of a loss in 2010 for her State Senate seat, never a strong position when you’re running for a promotion), but if everyone acts like she’s a top recruit, she becomes one. The Republican primary is very fractured, and Appel has managed to keep this field clear, as well as grabbing strong and early support from groups like Emily’s List. This could well happen, especially with the Senate seat getting a lot of national money (trickledown effect).
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| Freeholder Aimee Belgard |
Switching from Iowa to New Jersey, we’ve now entered the territory of races I think the Democrats would pick up if the election were held today (Iowa is the closest of tossups right now). More than almost any other race in the country this year, New Jersey’s third could result in the Tea Party costing Republicans a seat. The Republicans have done a decent job of besting conservative Senate challengers as we discussed yesterday, but Steve Lonegan, a Tea Party darling and former statewide candidate, boasts solid name recognition in this race and that could cost the Republicans their preferred establishment candidate, Tom MacArthur. The Democrats, however, have an ideal candidate in Freeholder Aimee Belgard, and more importantly, a district that cannot handle a hard-right conservative; it went to President Obama in both the last two elections, and the president actually improved his margin in the district in 2012.
3. Colorado-6
Colorado seems to have avoided any sort of hard-right challenge to Rep. Mike Coffman (R), but Coffman still is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country coming off a closer-than-expected victory over a poor candidate in 2012. Former Speaker of the Colorado State House (and statewide candidate in 2010) Andrew Romanoff is a vast improvement on the Democrats’ 2012 candidate, and has been raising money at a fantastic clip, keeping up with one of the better fundraisers in the GOP caucus. Probably the most devastating thing for Coffman is that this district went for President Obama in both the last two elections, and by a near 5-point margin in 2012 (making it the sixth biggest win for President Obama where the Republicans kept the seat). As Coffman isn’t as well-established in the district as other like seats (such as Frank LoBiondo or Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, both of which hold seats the Democrats will probably pick up when they retire), there’s a good chance he becomes the Charles Djou of 2014.
2. New York-11
What happens when you have a scandal-plagued (and recently indicted) incumbent Republican, force the GOP to keep him on the ballot because it’s too late for him to drop off, and put him against a Democratic City Councilman with lots of name recognition in parts of the district? You get New York’s eleventh. Part of the problem in this Staten Island district had been that Republican Michael Grimm is a Staten Island resident, whereas his opponent, Domenic Recchia, is from Brooklyn. That geographic imbalance had been tilting the race slightly toward Grimm, but the recent indictments against him are too huge to ignore. If this were a conservative district or he had a legitimate primary challenger, I could see the GOP holding it, but right now it doesn’t seem like Grimm is off the ballot, and most devastating for the Republicans is this is a district that went for President Obama by 4.3 points, making it imminently winnable for the Democrats. This is Staten Island, and they have a higher level of tolerance for corrupt politicians than the rest of the country, but with every news story between now and November talking about Grimm’s indictments, it’s hard to see him winning reelection.
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| Mayor Pete Aguilar |
Rep. Gary Miller got one more term than anyone expected. Thanks to a fluke in the jungle primary in 2012, Miller got put against a Republican in the general because the Democrats split their vote, costing Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar a spot in November and near certain victory. Miller is retiring in 2014, and no legitimate Republican has stepped forward to take his place on the ballot. The Democrats have three major candidates (Aguilar, former Rep. Joe Baca and attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes), but regardless of who makes it to November (it could well be two Democrats at this point), this is a seat that went for President Obama by 16-points in 2012-if the Democrats have a candidate in November, they’ll win.
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